RENEWABLE CAPACITY 2032

The future installed capacity data is based in the Scottish Government pipeline, consultancy reports and our calculations. We are going to double the 2016 installed capacity manly driven by wind energy, onshore and offshore. Scotland will have by 2032 around 20 GW of renewable capacity.

ONSHORE WIND

We have used the same methods and calculations to make an estimation of the future pipeline by 2032. The government has in place Contract for Difference so windfarm developers have a stable price in the future.

OFFSHORE WIND

The existing capacity by 2016 is only 187 MW but in the coming year, we will see in Scotland a significant increment of offshore wind power. The new projects will be localized in 2 main areas, the Firth of Forth on the east coast and the Moray Firth on the north coast of Scotland.

Basically, the majority of the futures Scottish windfarms are going to be developed in the areas determined by the Crown State in the Round 3. The UK government have put in places mechanism to promote new offshore wind capacity, the tool provided has been basically, a stable and guarantied price per MWh produced: through CDF (contract for difference) with a Strike price.

The pipeline of these wind farms is categorised in the 3 same sections. First and second categories are highly likely to be connected by 2032, although the third section (projects in planning) we have assumed that we might have connected a 30% of these projects.

That is why we have determined an extra capacity of 5,135 MW by 2032.

The data for the future capacity by 2032 is based in the Scottish government pipeline, who makes 3 distinctions: projects under construction, consented but awaiting construction and finally, in planning. We have made the assumption there will be live by 2032 the first two categories.

In the third category, projects on planning, we have assumed that projects can suffer several modifications, layout, size, connection date, etc. That is why we determined that at least a 30% of them will be connected by 2032.

As we can see on the pie chat we will have by 2032 a total of 5358 MW of offshore wind.

HYDRO

Scotland has a huge potential for small scale hydro, around 1 GW. Nevertheless we assumed that taking into account the lack on an official support we could have at maximum around 300 MW of small scale hydro.

There are some projects in planning for new large scale schemes but we don’t see probably have it connected by 2032. Nevertheless it is very probably having large scale extension by 2032; in this case we can count with the Sloy and Cruachan schemes operative by 2032, adding 460MW.

BIOMASS

Scotland has an important potential of biomass due to the waste disposal or wood incineration but we believe, based in the research made, that is possible to add around 50 MW of biomass capacity.

SOLAR

Scotland is not a very sunny country but we think that in the coming years, we will add some extra capacity, basically driven by the cost reduction of PV panels and enhancement of efficiency.

We believe that we can add 165 MW of solar capacity. The new installations will be stablished mostly in a residential level, having the government’s price support of the Feed in tariff scheme.

Reference:

Department for Business, Energy 7 Industrial Strategies, UK Goverment. Electricity Market Reform: Contracts for Difference. 2015.
Institution of Civil Engineers. Energy Briefing Sheet: Electricity Generation - Pumped Storage Hydro in the UK. 2015.
OFGEM. Feed-In Tariff (FIT) rates. 2012.
Renewable UK. Offshore Wind Project Timelines. 2016.
Scottish Goverment. BEIS, Renewable Energy Planning Database, October 2016.
SSE. New Pumped Storage Proposals. 2015.
The Scottish Institute of Sustainable Technology (SISTech). Scottttiish Hydropower Resoirce Study. 2008.