ELECTRICITY DEMAND PROJECTION

INTRODUCTION

When we talk about electric demand , we talk about Gross Consumption. This takes into account transmission and distribution losses before reaching consumers. Gross consumption is more appropriate in this project, as it includes an estimate of transmission and distribution losses. And so it is more realistic. For example Gross consumption in Scotland in 2016 was 36 TWh.(1)

Estimating electrical demand for the future is not an easy task, as it depends on many factors. We have proceeded to do it by taking four factors that from our point of view, are the ones that most affect, such as:

Electrification of heating
Introduction of electrical cars
Population
Efficiency

For this prediction of the electric demand for 2032 we have created 2 different scenarios, one more conservative than the other for each factor.

1. Electrification of heating

The effect of the electrification of heating is due to the fact that the Scottish government has proposed the target for 2032 of a largely decarbonised heat sector, and this will be achieved through a credible increase in the use of electrical forms of supply Heat as resistive heating and heat pumps. This electrification is difficult to estimate, since there are many options, and great uncertainty about costs, and technical developments. Therefore it is estimated that by 2032, there will be 6.4TWh extra of heat supplied, which comes from electrical devices.

For scenario 1, we assume that with the sole use of resistive heating, in order to supply 6.4 TWh of heat, we will require the same 6.4 TWh of electrical demand.

However for scenario 2, the net result is a reduction in total electricity demand for heat, due to the existing resistive heating load being replaced by heat pumps (Domestic ground heat pumps, and Non-domestic heat pumps) and also reduced by improved building insulation.with the introductionof heat pumps, in order to supply the same amount of heat, a lower amount of electric demand of 3.8 TWh will be required.(3)

2. Electrical Vehicles

It Is a factor not easy to predict since it depends on problems such as autonomy and price of batteries, subsidies of the government and so on.

Transport Scotland’s Electric Vehicle Roadmap envisages that by 2032 half of all new car sales will be battery-electric or hybrid. This results in EVs forming over 30% of the car in 2032, or 750,000 vehicles. This is the amount of cars we have chosen for scenario 1.

National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios 2013 predicts about 2,6TWh of additional electricity demand per million EVs

Therefore we will require a extra demand of 1.95 Twh from EVs. This will require 0,16 TWh in average per year until 2032.

For scenario 2 we will only include perhaps a more realistic amount of electrical cars, we assume that only 10% of the fleet will be electrical cars, therefore 250000 vehicles will be electrical. This will require 0,054 TWh in average until 2032. So it will be extra 0.65 Twh.(4,5)

3. Population Growth

The population of Scotland is projected to grow by 7% in the next 16 years, assuming that electricity demand grows proportionally with population growth, we will also have an increase of 7% in both scenarios.

4. Efficiency

Scenario 1

• Domestic demand is reduced by improvements in heating and lighting efficiency, but then increases due to population growth and GDP growth. The net effect is a slight increase over current domestic demand.(the efficiency is not enough)

• Industrial demand is driven by assumptions about economic trends. This results in lower industrial demand than 2016

• Commercial and other’ demand decreases significantly, driven by economic assumptions about energy efficiency.

Due to those reasons, the electrical demand is prevented to increase to 37 TWh. 0.058 per year in average

Scenario 2

• Domestic demand is reduced by improvements in heating and lighting efficiency, but then increases due to population growth. But in this case the efficiency is enough to make demand to decrease.

• In this scenario also industrial and commercial efficiency go further.

Due to those reasons, the electrical demand is prevented to decrease to 34 TWh, 2 TWh less than in 2016.(6)

SUMMARY

Summing all the factors, we will obtain the demand projection as shown in the graph above. It is clear that demand in scenario 1 with 45.35 TWh is higher than scenario 2 with 37.55 TWh.

Reference:

1. Anon, (2017). [online] Available at: http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0044/00444530.pdf [Accessed 9 May 2017].

2. Gov.scot. (2017). Scenarios for Scottish Heat, Heat Pathway Scenarios Model Factual Report. [online] Available at: http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Business-Industry/Energy/Energy-sources/19185/Heat/HeatScenariosReport [Accessed 9 May 2017].

3. Anon, (2017). [online] Available at: http://assets.wwf.org.uk/downloads/rh_web.pdf [Accessed 9 May 2017].

4. Transport.gov.scot. (2017). [online] Available at: https://www.transport.gov.scot/ [Accessed 9 May 2017].

5. Gov.scot. (2017). Low Carbon Scotland - Meeting our Emissions Reduction Targets 2013-2027. [online] Available at: http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Environment/climatechange/scotlands-action/lowcarbon/meetingthetargets [Accessed 9 May 2017].

Nrscotland.gov.uk. (2017). Population projections for Scottish areas | National Records of Scotland. [online] Available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/news/2016/population-projections-for-scottish-areas [Accessed 9 May 2017].

7.Nrscotland.gov.uk. (2017). Population projections for Scottish areas | National Records of Scotland. [online] Available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/news/2016/population-projections-for-scottish-areas [Accessed 9 May 2017].