RESULTS
The results of both scenarios have been generated after using modeling tool, EnergyPlan, many results were generated and reviewed. These results were compiled and presented by following the objective of the project by the following section.
DEMAND DATA
The modeling results for all scenarios have been generated by using EnergyPLAN, many results were generated and reviewed. Our group have compiled these results and presented those with relevant data regarding the aim and objective of this project.
We have used both demand scenarios in our calculations , the detailed demand calculation and assumptions are showed in the Electrical demand projection section.
Scenario 1
Scenario 1, high demand: The high demand scenario consists of 37 TWh, had taken into account the population growth and the impact of the efficiency, 6.4 TWh extra of electric heating, and 1.95 Wh extra of the electric vehicle. Hence, the total demand of this scenario is 45.35 TWh.
Scenario 2
Scenario 2, moderate demand: The low demand scenario consist of 34 TWh, had taken into account the population growth and the impact of the efficiency, 3.8 TWh of electric heating, and 0.65 Wh of the electric vehicle. Hence, the total demand of this scenario is 38.45 TWh.
IMPORT AND EXPORT
The amount of import and export are the first results that have been analysed for studying the possible Scotland electricity system by 2032.
There are 2 types of supply that have been studied in this simulation which are RES only and RES + existing gas power plant. The simulation results have shown that:
Scenario 1
In high demand scenario, the amount of import in case 1 and 2 are 12.3 and 7.5 TWh respectively. But the amount of export of both case is the same with is 20.6 TWh.
Scenario 2
In low demand scenario, the amount of import in case 1 and 2 are 9 and 4.7 TWh respectively. But the amount of export of both case is the same with is 24.1 TWh.
In summary, when the gas has been added in the simulation, the amount of import will be reduced. But the amount of export will remain the same. This is because the gas power plant will generate only when the RES supply is not enough to cover the demand. Thus the gas power plant will affect the amount of import only.
SUPPLY CAPACITY AND STORAGE NEEDED
From the previous topic, the amount of imported electricity from both scenarios is enormous. Hence, storage has been added to the simulation to eliminate the import.
In this graph we show the relationship between the amount of storage needed to avoid imports with a different type of supply for both scenarios. There are 3 types of supply that have been studied in this simulation which are RES only, RES and existing gas power plant, and RES and more gas to eliminate storage.
Scenario 1
In the high demand scenario, the storage needed in case 1 and 2 are 950 and 650 GWh respectively. We would need 6700 MW of a gas power plant in case 3 in order to eliminate storage.
Scenario 2
In the low demand scenario, the storage needed in case 1 and 2 are 620 and 350 GWh respectively. We would need 5700 MW of a gas power plant in case 3 in order to eliminate storage.
In summary, when gas power plants have been added, the needed for storage will be reduced in both scenarios.
CARBON EMISSION
In order to get rid of the import and storage, we need to add more gas capacity but this will mean a significant increment of carbon emissions. We have calculated those emissions as we can see in the graph.
Case 1
RES only. In this case, both scenarios with different demand have the same amount of carbon emission. These emissions come from biomass.
Case 2
RES + Existing gas PP. In this case, emissions from high demand scenario is slightly higher than the low demand case.
Case 3
RES + More gas to avoid import. In this case, emissions from high demand are significantly higher, this is because the amount of gas needed.