Methodology

1. ESTIMATION DEMAND 2032

The electrical demand is very fluctuating since it depends on many factors. In the last 3 years, there has been a progressive reduction in electric demand in Scotland until 2016. But what will happen in the future? Our forecast is based on the study of four factors.

Electrification of heating
Introduction of EVs
Population Growth
Efficiency

2. ESTIMATION OF RENEWABLE CAPACITY 2032

Taking a value for future demand, the second objective was to calculate the extra capacity of renewables sources that we will obtain in 2032, which, adding to the existing one, gives us the total amount of renewables capacity for 2032 to model a range of potential supply solutions Low carbon emissions that could meet this. This Renewable Capacity will consist of:

Offshore Wind energy
Onshore wind energy
Small and large Hydro
Small and large Solar PV
Biomass
Tidal

3. EnergyPLAN

Once estimated the electric demand and the future capacity from renewables, we proceed to use EnergyPLAN, which is a software that simulates the operation of energy systems on a large scale every hour. For this, we will use two different cases.

4. IMPORT AND EXPORT

For all cases, we obtain the amount of surplus energy, which we would have to export, or store, and the amount of deficit, that is, the amount of electric energy we should import so that the system does not collapse.

5. BASE LOAD AND CO2 EMISSIONS

How much nuclear or gas capacity do we need to eliminate the imports in our system? And if the base load is gas... ho much CO2?